The Numbers Are Starting to Move

Today was one of those training days where the numbers finally started to feel real.

This morning, I was in the pool.

By lunch, I was on the bike.

And by the end of the day, I had something I didn't really have a week ago:

baselines.

Not guesses. Not projections. Not a fitness app trying to reverse-engineer who I am from three workouts.

Actual numbers I can come back to.

The Ride

Today's lunch ride was:

• 11.23 miles
• 53:47 moving time
• 12.5 mph average speed
• 27.5 mph max speed
• 407 feet of elevation gain

Average heart rate was 143 bpm, with a max of 158 bpm.

Strava gave the ride a Relative Effort of 74.

More importantly, almost the entire ride stayed in an aerobic-to-tempo range:

• 32.1% in Zone 2
• 65.7% in Zone 3

That means 97.8% of the ride was spent in Zones 2 and 3, with no time in threshold or anaerobic territory.

That matters more to me right now than the average speed.

Twelve-and-a-half miles per hour isn't a sexy number.

But this isn't a highlight reel.

It's training.

It was also 83 degrees outside, felt like 85, with 74% humidity, because apparently Alabama still believes September is part of summer.

The goal wasn't to chase speed.

The goal was to build the engine.

A Week Ago, TrainingPeaks Barely Knew I Existed

I've only been using TrainingPeaks for about a week, so its fitness model is still calibrating.

This morning my numbers were:

• Fitness: 14
• Fatigue: 29
• Form: -14

After the swim and bike work today:

• Fitness: 15
• Fatigue: 38
• Form: -23

That doesn't mean I suddenly became dramatically fitter in a few hours.

It means the system is finally starting to collect enough data to understand what I'm doing.

Right now, those numbers are less important as an absolute score than they are as the beginning of a trend.

That trend now has a starting point.

The Other Baselines

The bike isn't the only area where the numbers are moving.

My latest swim set was 10 x 100 yards, averaging:

1:58.3 per 100 yards

The individual splits ranged from 1:55 to 2:02.

My previous repeatable pace was closer to 2:04 per 100 yards.

That's roughly a five-to-six-second improvement per hundred.

Still nowhere close to where I eventually want to be.

But measurable.

On the bike, I finally completed a proper 20-minute FTP test.

For anyone unfamiliar with an FTP test, it is twenty minutes of voluntarily making terrible decisions on a stationary bicycle.

I averaged 151 watts over the twenty-minute effort.

That gave me a measured FTP of:

143 watts

Average heart rate:

167 bpm

Average cadence:

76 rpm

Is 143 watts impressive?

No.

But that's exactly why it matters.

It's the starting line.

My estimated VO2 max has also reached:

41

Again, not where I want it.

But moving.

This Is Why I Track It

The purpose of recording these numbers isn't to turn training into an Excel spreadsheet with sweat.

It's accountability.

There will be days when I feel strong and the numbers disagree.

There will be days when I feel terrible and the numbers show improvement anyway.

Feelings matter.

But feelings are unreliable narrators.

Data gives me something objective to return to.

In a month, I can test again.

In three months, I can compare.

In six months, I can look back at:

• 1:58 swim pace
• 143-watt FTP
• 41 VO2 max
• TrainingPeaks Fitness 15

…and see what changed.

That matters because progress rarely feels dramatic while you're living through it.

Most improvement happens quietly.

One workout.

One adaptation.

One uncomfortable test.

One more rep.

Then eventually you look backward and realize the person you were measuring against doesn't exist anymore.

The Bigger Point

Tri For the 22 has never been just about finishing an IRONMAN.

The race gives the campaign a destination.

The training provides the story.

And the story gives me a way to talk about something much bigger than swimming, cycling, or running.

Recovery works the same way.

So does rebuilding after trauma.

So does working through grief.

So does fighting isolation.

Most of the time, there is no dramatic moment where everything suddenly becomes better.

You establish a baseline.

You do the work.

You measure honestly.

You adjust.

Then you do it again.

Some days the improvement is obvious.

Most days it isn't.

But if you keep showing up long enough, the numbers eventually tell the story for you.

Current baseline:

• Swim: 1:58.3 / 100 yd
• Bike FTP: 143 W
• VO2 Max: 41
• TrainingPeaks Fitness: 15
• Race: IRONMAN 70.3 Chattanooga — May 16, 2027

There's a lot of work between here and Chattanooga.

Good.

That's the point.